[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N11W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...THE EQUATOR AT
45W...AND TO 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N12W
2N21W 3N27W 1N35W...AND WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 5S32W 1S40W 1N46W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W ONSHORE AND MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE AMAPA REGION OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND NEXT
PROBABLY IN FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 53W...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 30N122W. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD INTERIOR MEXICO...BECOMING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A RIDGE IN INTERIOR MEXICO. A CUT-OFF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN EAST CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROMINENT TO THE EAST OF THE MEXICO LOW CENTER...
FROM 26N91W TO 28N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...BEYOND
32N74W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W
20N67W 13N79W. A SEPARATE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...
AS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM
25N54W TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
24N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W...NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 23N86W AND 26N92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM
22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 18N70W
17N81W. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD DROP MORE
TO THE SOUTH... CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 80W AND 100W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REACHING 26N91W. SOME OF THIS FLOW SPLITS
OFF AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WHILE THE
REST OF IT JUST GOES NORTHWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 25N60W
20N67W 13N79W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY FROM 22N TO 28N...THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 27N47W 22N60W 19N70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N47W TO 24N52W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA IN WHICH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
THE SAME POSITION MORE OR LESS FOR THE LAST WEEK OR MORE.  THIS
FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH 32N45W TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR
29N45W TO A 1015 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 25N49W...WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING FROM THIS LOW TO 20N54W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
20N54W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 14N63W. IT IS MORE
PROBABLE THAT THE INITIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EASTWARD, AND MAY RECEIVE ENERGY
FROM THIS 32N47W 24N52W TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS ALONG
21W/22W NORTH OF 26N. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE 32N47W
24N52W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N55W TO 16N46W TO
26N35W BEYOND 32N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N47W 28N42W 30N41W BEYOND 33N41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS STAND OUT IN INFRARED IMAGERY FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
38W AND 52W...AND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W.

$$
MT


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