[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N9W 3N15W 2N20W 1N30W...AND 1N38W TO THE EQUATOR AT 45W TO
THE EQUATOR AT 49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 6N28W 3N32W 1S36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3S7W 4N14W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W
AND 29W...AND FROM 3S TO 2N BETWEEN 32W AND 50W. COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND OVER LAND AND IN THE NEARBY
WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH/LOW CENTER OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...
IS PUSHING A STEADY STREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
AND BEYOND. THIS MOISTURE IS UNDER A RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS AND BEYOND. THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST
OF 90W IS BEING COVERED BY THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO EAST OF 90W. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N70W...PASSING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N
TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO...AND NOW IS
ALONG 21N75W 26N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN
64W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TO NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N95W TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURGE IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
TO BE NORTHEAST OF 12N60W 15N70W 16N74W. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD PARALLELS THE 12N60W
16N74W LINE AND THEN CURVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA
TO PANAMA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ONSHORE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 79W AND 86W...WITH POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
MAXIMA PERSISTS AND HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE LAST WEEK TO TEN
DAYS. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMA FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA STRAIGHT TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE ALONG
18N57W 26N56W BEYOND 32N55W. THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE
11/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA  WEST OF 70W RANGE
FROM 40 KT TO 70 KT...AND FROM 40 KT TO 55 KT EAST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE IS ALONG 18N57W 26N56W BEYOND 32N55W.
THIS IS THE RIDGE WHICH PICKS UP SOME OF ITS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WIND MAXIMA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WHICH
STARTS OUT IN AFRICA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N
EAST OF 30W...TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WHICH
IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N57W TO 20N64W.

$$
MT

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