[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W. A WEAK TROUGH
IS EMBEDDED IN THE AXIS ALONG 35W/36W FROM THE EQ TO 6N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO THE S
OF THE AXIS E OF 14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING EWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
EPAC TO THE CENTRAL U.S.  AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N62W TO 27N69W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS
DISSIPATED...A REMNANT WEAK TROUGH LIES IN THE AREA FROM 18N81W
TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA NEAR 22N87W. A LINE OF CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE REMNANT TROUGH...BUT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W
ATLANTIC NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ONE OF THE
MOST PERSISENT AREAS OF RAIN THIS EARLY MORNING IS OFF THE COAST
OF S FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING SWWARD INLAND OVER
EXTREME SE FLORIDA. ENE WINDS NEAR 25-30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS. FAIR...DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
LIES ACROSS THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO E OF BERMUDA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL MOVE TO THE E OF
THE AREA AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS FROM
32N75W ACROSS THE W BAHAMAS TO 19N82W. MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA E OF 70W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 58W. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE NEAR FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WHERE SURFACE FORCING AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS THE STRONGEST. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTRMS CONTINUE
OVER COLUMBIA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER HIGH
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY SO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA FROM THE
DIFLUENT FLOW CAUSED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER HIGH.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY MODERATE TRADES. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
CUT-OFF IN THE N CARIBBEAN THRU WED/THU KEEPING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE E OF THE AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E BAHAMAS. THIS MESSY WEATHER WILL CLEAR
THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING FROM THE W
GULF BUILDS EWARD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A MID-UPPER
RIDGE. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S AMERICA
TO 32N53W. DISTANT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE
REGION. A MID-UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW NEAR 33N22W
ALONG 27N38W 23N46W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...THICKEST FROM 30W-55W N OF 15N. A SWIFT SWLY JET LIES
ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE
JETSTREAM AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. AN
UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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