[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N33W DISCONTINUOUS ALONG 1S39W
1N50W. A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE AXIS ALONG 35W FROM THE
EQ TO 2N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250
NM OF THE AXIS E OF 32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 39W WWARD TO INLAND
OVER S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING EWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
EPAC TO THE CENTRAL U.S.  AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE E GULF AND W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N63W TO 27N71W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWARD TO 17N89W AND EWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 21N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW...BUT
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
W ATLANTIC NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIAMI
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND IN
THE KEYS. ENE WINDS NEAR 25-30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS. FAIR...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED
BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS LIES
ACROSS THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS
BERMUDA TOMORROW BUT MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWARD AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST ACROSS THE W BAHAMAS TO 19N83W.
MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH THE MEAN AXIS
ALONG 60W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WHERE SURFACE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS THE STRONGEST.
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED EARLIER IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER
COLUMBIA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER HIGH
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY SO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA FROM THE
DIFLUENT FLOW CAUSED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER HIGH.
OTHERWISE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY MODERATE TRADES. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PUSH TO THE E TOMORROW OVER HISPANIOLA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWARD. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THRU THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS IN
THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A MID-UPPER
RIDGE. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S AMERICA
TO 32N54W. DISTANT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE
REGION. A MID-UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW NEAR 33N21W
ALONG 26N38W 18N46W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...THICKEST FROM 30W-55W N OF 15N. A SWIFT SWLY JET LIES
ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE
JETSTREAM AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE CENTRAL ATLC
TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. AN
UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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