[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N31W 1S46W.  NEW QUIKSCAT
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ S OF 6N
ALONG 28W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N26.5W...
1N14.5W AND 3N38W.  A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO S OF 1N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION NOW THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
MOVED WELL E AND HAS JUST LEFT BEHIND SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE W GULF WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING IS SITTING NEAR FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IN THE E GULF.  THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LOOKS THE MOST UNSETTLED
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT AT TIMES AND PASSING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON THRU THE WEEKEND.  ELY
WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER SLY
COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
THE MAJORITY OF CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE RATHER BENIGN WITH TRADES
RELAXING AND A FEW PASSING LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS.. MOVING E OF 72W.
ITCZ SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N.  THINGS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD INTO
THE W ATLC AS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS.  AN
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 80W IS COMBINING WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22.5N74W NE TO
31N62W E OF BERMUDA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE FRONT
AND FROM 20N-22.5N BETWEEN 69W-78W.  STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE JUST TO THE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE E COAST OF THE USA.  COMPUTER MODELS
REALLY AREN'T SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A MAJORITY OF
THEM ARE NOW FORMING A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS AND DRIFTING IT WESTWARD.  AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ISN'T ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET ANY HYBRID TYPE
OF SYSTEM GOING WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR... DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S... AND SW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT FORECAST
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR.  HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENHANCE SEA-BREEZE RELATED
CONVECTION AND CAUSE RAIN NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.  RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS BY THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD.
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND COULD INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES TOMORROW.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BASICALLY A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS IN CONTROL WITH
RIDGING W OF 50W... TROUGHING FROM 31N34W 20N40W 13N50W... AND A
LARGE UPPER HIGH NEAR GUINEA IN W AFRICA COVERING THE SE ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC FROM
25W-60W WITH ANY SHOWERS VERY SHALLOW-BASED.  PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-60W.  TRADES ARE AT NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE E ATLC
SAVE NEAR A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 32N22W.  GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE E ATLC.. UPPER RIDGING WILL GROW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND FORM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 12N48W ON SAT...
EXCEPTIONALLY FAR TO THE N FOR APRIL (OR EVEN MAY).

$$
BLAKE

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