[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N46W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
2N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE REACHES INTERIOR MEXICO AND
JUST BARELY ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS...WHICH THEN JUST WAS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NOW IS RIGHT SMACK IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GULF ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N83W TO 25N90W TO A
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
19N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N86W
28N82W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N84W
30N81W BEYOND 32N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND DISSIPATING MORE TO
THE NORTH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ARE RELATED TO BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THIS AREA. THE 1006 MB SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS ALONG 12N15W FROM
AFRICA TO 12N40W TO 12N60W. THIS SAME RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
12N60W TO 10N70W AND 10N80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW...ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...COVERS
PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA RIGHT NOW ARE NOT AS THICK OR NUMEROUS
AS THOSE CLOUDS OF YESTERDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IS
APPARENT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N75W. A TROUGH RUNS TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 11N81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DEEP LAYER TROUGH...GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N69W TO 26N68W TO 30N67W BEYOND 32N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS ALONG 12N15W FROM
AFRICA TO 12N40W TO 12N60W. THIS SAME RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
12N60W TO 10N70W AND 10N80W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N69W TO
24N54W BEYOND 32N42W. THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N48W TO 25N48W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N48W BEYOND 33N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
14N35W TO 20N20W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE LINE
THROUGH 32N16W TO 28N20W TO 22N30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

MT





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