[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082307
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W 1S49W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 17W-30W.  A FEW TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N14W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF 4N W OF
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF WHILE RACING
SOUTHWARD IN THE SW GULF.  FRONT HAS JUST PAST PENSACOLA FLORIDA
SW TO 25N90W THEN INTO SW MEXICO NEAR 20N96.5W HANGING UP IN THE
HIGH MOUNTAINS.  POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE USA IS
CAUSING SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA BUT
INSTABILITY IS PRETTY LIMITED OVER GULF WATERS WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 29N.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAK 1008 MB
LOW.. JUST A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20N94.5W DRIFTING SE.  BEHIND THE LOW WINDS PICK UP BUT THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF S FLORIDA TOMORROW AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
SEVERE TSTMS TOMORROW.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE
PENINSULA EARLY MON WITH FRESH 25 KT NE WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.  DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26.5N.  NO FRONTS ARE
ON THE HORIZON YET BUT POSSIBLE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH A
TROUGH FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS THE RULE SAVE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA.  WEAK SHALLOW SURFACE
LOW IS NEAR 10.5N79W.. MORE AMPLIFIED THAN NORMAL IN THE TYPICAL
CYCLONIC WIND REGIME OF THE SW CARIBBEAN.  TYPICAL TRADEWIND
SHOWERS ARE AROUND IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW TSTMS FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.  COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER STARTING LATE TOMORROW
OVER CUBA BY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS... SHIFTING
FARTHER SE TO ERN CUBA BY LATE MON AND HISPANIOLA ON TUE.  A
LITTLE DRIER AIR COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING CONTROLS THE NW ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH E OF
BERMUDA PROVIDING FAIR SKIES.  INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE THE
HARBINGER OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK LIKELY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.  FARTHER E... MID/UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 20N46W TO
32N49W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N49W.  TROUGH IS CAUSING A LARGE
AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-50W IN
ADDITION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS.  MOST OF THE WEATHER LIES E
OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 25N47W TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 32N47W.  CLOUDS ARE ALSO ON THE INCREASE IN THE
E ATLC AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR 26N38W MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS N OF 20N E OF THE SHORTWAVE.  A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY BUT IT LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N19W TO 22N36W
PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  WEAK UPPER
RIDGING CONTROLS THE TROPICAL E ATLC WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT KEEPS CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS ACTIVE E OF
30W IN RATHER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER RIDGING REMAINS
FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH TRADES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.  WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE ALONG ABOUT 28W BUT IT IS VERY LOW-LATITUDE
(S OF 6N) AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK.

$$
BLAKE

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