[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W
3N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-33W AND 36W-44W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM
EQ-2.5N AND BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE GULF ALONG 30N-89W 26N-94W ENTERING NE MEXICO NEAR
25N-97W...THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WEST TO 27N-105W. A NARROW LINE
OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE FRONT TURNS VERY ACTIVE OVER SE
U.S. WHERE IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 31N60W WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS REACHED THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND THE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH A
TROUGH FURTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WIND FLOW IN A JET STREAM
STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE JET COVERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 15N AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF
GUADELOUPE. ACCORDING TO THE 08/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA...UPPER WIND SPEEDS ARE RANGING FROM 50-80 KT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
NORTH OF 15N. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE SEA THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 30N68W BEYOND BERMUDA. EAST OF THE RIDGE A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N49W SWD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
32W-46W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CROSSES FLORIDA AND
SPREADS EWD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WEST OF 70W. AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
47W-70W. OVER THE E ATLC THERE IS ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF
20N EAST OF 35W...WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE AZORES. THE ASSOCIATED DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N19W THEN CONTINUES SWD TO 25N30W. A BAND OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MARKS THIS FRONT.

$$
GR



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