[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W...AND FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 31N62W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N72W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH HAS REACHED THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH FINALLY HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS BETWEEN 08/0600 UTC AND 08/0900 UTC. MOISTURE ON TOP OF
THE GULF RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT
IS OVER LAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A JET STREAM STRETCHES
FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXITING ON TOP OF THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 17N60W 16N70W 15N83W. THE
WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 08/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOW WIND SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM AND CLOUD BAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHES THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N72W BEYOND BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS OUT NEAR 5N36W TO 8N48W TO 8N60W NEAR THE VENEZUELA/
GUYANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND STARTS OUT OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND RACES NORTHEASTWARD IN ORDER TO COVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF 60W. THE WIND SPEEDS
ACCORDING TO THE 08/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS JET STREAM IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT LEAST
A FEW 90 KT WIND VECTORS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W. THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N67W. THE SENSE OF THE FLOW CHANGES TO CYCLONIC
AROUND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 25N48W
TO 20N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
32N48W TO 31N48W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N48W TO 28N50W TO
24N54W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N47W TO 29N49W TO 25N52W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FEATURE ANCHORS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
30N. THE LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 38N24W. THE
998 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 38N24W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N20W TO 31N21W...AND THEN DISSIPATING TO 30N22W AND
25N31W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
MARKS THIS FRONT.

$$
MT



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