[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N46W TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO
5N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE REACHES INTERIOR MEXICO AND
JUST BARELY ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS...WHICH THEN JUST WAS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS ALONG 87W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT
WHICH PASSES THROUGH 30N81W TO 25N86W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 20N92W AND TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
18N93W. PRECIPITATION HAD HAD BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR A SQUALL LINE
EIGHT HOURS EARLIER. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 30N73W 30N77W 28N80W 25N85W. THE PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND ANY REMAINING CELL OR CELLS OF SHOWERS...WHICH
ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME...APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE FORMERLY WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GULF COLD FRONT HAS LOST ITS PRESENCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS ALONG 12N15W FROM
AFRICA TO 12N40W TO 12N60W. THIS SAME RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
12N60W TO 10N70W AND 10N80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW...ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...COVERS
PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AREA RIGHT NOW ARE NOT AS THICK OR NUMEROUS
AS THOSE CLOUDS OF YESTERDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IS
APPARENT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOTS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DEEP LAYER TROUGH...GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N69W TO 26N67W TO 30N67W BEYOND 32N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS ALONG 12N15W FROM
AFRICA TO 12N40W TO 12N60W. THIS SAME RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
12N60W TO 10N70W AND 10N80W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N53W TO
A LOW CENTER NEAR 25N46W TO 30N35W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR
34N26W TO THE PARENT LOW CENTER NEAR 39N19W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM SUPPORTS THE 1001 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 38N19W...AND AN ACCOMPANYING DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 26N20W TO 21N28W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 38N19W 30N35W 25N53W
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND
46W...AND NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 37W.

MT






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