[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051713
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N23W 134W EQ50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 32W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-17W AND 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. EXTENDS SWD INTO THE E
GULF...FLORIDA AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 1500 UTC...AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W TO
A 1015 MB LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W THEN DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF 25N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NE OF THE LOW. LITTLE WEATHER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. VERY LITTLE TEMP
CHANGE IS NOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED IN OVER FLORIDA. EAST OF THE FRONT...THERE ARE TWO
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGHS. ONE LOCATED FROM 21N72W TO 31N65W AND
THE OTHER ALONG 66W/67W FROM 22N-27W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SPREAD WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXES WITH THE SHOWERS
NEAR THE EASTERN-MOST TROUGH BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO MULTIPLE HIGH CENTERS ACROSS THE N GULF AND
CENTRAL U.S. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N
WITH VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...S MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SEWARD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WASHING OUT BY LATE FRI/SAT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE NE U.S. DIGS DEEP INTO THE W CARIBBEAN DRAWING
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S AMERICA AND
SPREADING NEWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. W OF THIS
MOISTURE PLUME...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE
FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ENHANCED BY
THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY TRACKING NWWD. PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL EWD ALLOWING MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W
GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN.
THE LOW THAT WAS MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE AREA NEAR 26N32W ENHANCING SHOWERS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER AXIS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 12W-31W. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE TO THE W OF THIS JET FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 32W-48W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N40W. DRY/STABLE AIR COVERS THE
AREA E OF 40W FROM 5N-15N.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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