[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N20W EQ30W 2S47W.  WEAK
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR S AMERICA ALONG 49-50W
WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 49W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 37W-45W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 35W-38W AND 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N82W 26N87W. VERY LITTLE WEATHER
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE GULF. IT WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE DAY GOES BY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A 1018 MB CENTER NEAR 28N88W. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST GULF
LATE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
HISPANIOLA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS. ONE OF THEM IS AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY... ENHANCING THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FIRST OVER HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARDS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO ASSIST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLC OCEAN. ZONAL FLOW
CONTROLS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC NEAR 31N70W EXTENDING SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A PATCH OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IS ALONG THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A WEAK TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 70-71W IS HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 64W-71W. A PERSISTENT 1018
MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 21N46W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER. THE LOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO THE TROUGH BYPASSING
THE LOW. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N42W.

$$
GR




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