[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1S40W 1S47W.  WEAK
TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR S
AMERICA ALONG 49-50W S OF 5N BRINGING ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 5S W
OF 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND  LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N86W 28N93W. VERY
LITTLE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. IT
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE DAY GOES BY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT
ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER S AMERICA IS DRAWING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...ENHANCING THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FIRST OVER HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARDS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO ASSIST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLC OCEAN. ZONAL FLOW
CONTROLS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW
ATLC NEAR 31N74W EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.. TWO WEAK TROUGHS ARE SERVING AS MECHANISMS FOR RAIN AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SE USA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 63W-72W.  A PERSISTENT 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS
NEAR 21N46W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 25N-31W BETWEEN 28W-35W. THE
LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO THE TROUGH
BYPASSING THE LOW. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR
7N42W.

$$
GR


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