[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1N8W 2N46W.  WEAK
TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR S
AMERICA ALONG 49W S OF 4N BRINGING ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 5S W OF
47W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 4N19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS THRU CENTRAL
FLORIDA APPROACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF NEAR 26.5N88W
THEN NW TO NEAR GALVESTON BAY.  DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE NE GULF HAVE COMBINED TO FORM A FEW
TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT... SOME SEVERE WITH GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS AND STRONG WINDS ARE HARD TO COME BY OVER THE
GULF AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS DIURNAL HEATS FADES.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.  OTHERWISE.. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN... ASSISTING THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER E
CUBA.. JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA.  OTHER SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF 16N
W OF 80W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER S AMERICA IS DRAWING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.  NO BIG CHANGES ARE
LIKELY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW FOR HISPANIOLA WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO (WHICH HAD A FEW TSTMS TODAY).

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW ATLC NEAR 31N74W EXTENDING SW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FT. PIERCE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT.. TWO
WEAK TROUGHS ARE SERVING AS MECHANISMS FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SE USA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 63W-72W.  THESE TROUGHS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AROUND A LARGE CENTRAL ATLC 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N47W.  BENEATH
THE HIGH... A PESKY & PERSISTENT 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 21.5N46.5W
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 23N42W 29N34W.  THE LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO THE TROUGH
BYPASSING THE LOW... BUT THIS SURFACE LOW HAS HAD A WAY OF
STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED.  AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N42W AS RIDGING IS FAR TO THE N FOR EARLY
APRIL.  OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW CONTROLS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH AN UPPER JET RUNNING FROM 15N60W TO 20N30W.  WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS IN THE SE ATLC ALONG 20W WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
TRADES REMAIN QUITE W OF 40W DUE TO THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC.  SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AFRICAN DUST APPARENT FROM VISIBLE IMAGES S OF 18N ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

$$
BLAKE

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