[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W 3N45W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 14W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS
W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE NE U.S. AND S CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE E
GULF...FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC. AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
28N92W THEN STATIONARY TO TEXAS. VERY LITTLE WEATHER IS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ONLY BROKEN BANDS OF CLOUDS STRETCH
100 NM OR SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS BUILDING EWD OVER MEXICO...THE W GULF AND S CENTRAL U.S. WITH
THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 105W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A 1026 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
MID-WEST U.S. AND A 1021 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N92W. THE
WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WASHING OUT IN THE GULF TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE N GULF ON SAT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT APPROACHES.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 70W WITH THE
DRIEST AIR ALOFT OVER MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER S AMERICA IS DRAWING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA
DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THICKER CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER
COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. NO BIG CHANGES
ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION THRU FRI MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY
TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NE U.S. TO THE BAHAMAS.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. BROKEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE FRONT. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG 70W/71W FROM
22N-30N LIKELY PRODUCED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOW SITS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR 22N46W. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE STRETCHES SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES TO THE NE OF THE LOW AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM A SWLY JET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS TO THE W OF
THE JET FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 46W-65W. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024
MB HIGH IS LOCATED 500 NM NNE OF THE LOW NEAR 30N42W. SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE E ATLC PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A MID-UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 6N38W WITH DRY/STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA
FROM N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG
47W/48W SOUTH OF 6N ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN
44W-51W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


WWWW
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