[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 40W-50W. CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE
GULF WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA
NORTH OF 26N. A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA
WESTWARD ALONG 28N90W 2895W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF
16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIG
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WEAK THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING LIGHT ELY WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E CENTERED NEAR 27N64W
MOVING E.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
AND E OF 40W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO 20N AND EAST OF 40W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N42W CONTROLS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF
70W TO W AFRICA.  A 1014 MB LOW PERSISTS NE AND FAR AWAY OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW ALONG 47W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 43-44W SOUTH OF
10N TO THE ITCZ. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY NE OF THE LOW FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

$$
GR






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