[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W.
PATCHES OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3S-4N
BETWEEN 5W-23W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM NORTH OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL MEXICO...WHILE A NEW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE W GULF. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE SECTOR OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS/ATLANTIC TO BEYOND
32N-70W. SOME MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND FROM S
GEORGIA TO S TEXAS ALONG 32N82W 30N90W 30N96W PUSHING S TO THE N
GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N92W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATES THE
GULF. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF
16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. PATCHES OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER COLOMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIG INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE
TODAY. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH FRI
MAINTAINING MAINLY LIGHT ELY WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF STATES.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E CENTERED NEAR 30N65W MOVING E.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND EAST
OF 40W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N40W CONTROLS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF 70W TO W AFRICA.
A 1014 MB LOW PERSISTS NE AND FAR AWAY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 22N48W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 23N42W
21N50W 21N54W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWER ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
40W-48W.

$$
GR





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