[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 2N43W EQ50W.  PATCHES
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 6W-22W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS INLAND FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 31N90W
30N96W 29N100W PUSHING S TO THE N GULF OF MEXICO.  1022 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH
IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  A NEW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS MOVING INTO THE W GULF.  RIDGE AXIS IS PRESENTLY OVER INLAND
MEXICO ALONG 100W MOVING E.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S FLORIDA
THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S LOUISIANA
WITH CONVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-80W.  N COLOMBIA
HAS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS
OF 10N74W DRIFTING N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS.  LINES OF MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO
DIG INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY THE 24 HOUR POINT.  EXPECT THE AREAS
OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER
HISPANIOLA...OVER N VENEZUELA...AND OVER N COLOMBIA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE LARGE 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N43W DOMINATES
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM W AFRICA TO FLORIDA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N55W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
21N50W 25N40W... AND EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO 22N62W.  OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  THIS UPPER TROUGH IS DRIVING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED N OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E CENTERED NEAR 30N65W MOVING E.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W.
WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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