[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W...AND 2N43W...TO THE EQUATOR AT
50W...TO 1S54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...
AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3S TO 4N
BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 2S
TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTERIOR MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH PRETTY MUCH MOSTLY IS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
MEXICO PACIFIC COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS IN THE GULF WEST OF 92W...BECOMING WESTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE
EASTWARD AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH
REACHES THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 26N/27N ALONG 86W.
OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
90W AND 95W...AND MORE INLAND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 89W AND
98W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE FOUND SOUTH OF AND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 74W...AND SOUTH OF AND OVER JAMAICA FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND APPROACHING AND REACHING EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
82W AND 84W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON PROBABLY JUST FROM
AFTERNOON HEATING. NO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOR A SURFACE
TROUGH...SUCH AS WHAT WAS FOUND ON THE MAP FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND ALONG THE LINE FROM 23N63W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N61W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
SHOW 60 KT TO 100 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE FASTEST WINDS OF 100 KT ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER. 40 KT TO 60 KT WESTERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 27N42W TO 23N50W TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N56W...AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
22N60W. THIS FEATURE HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE WEATHER IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TOP
OF THIS TROUGH...ACCORDING TO THE 03/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...IS FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHWEST...WITH WIND
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 KT TO 65 KT SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W...AND FROM 65 KT TO 100 KT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO FLORIDA AND THE REST OF
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING THE THROUGH THE UNITED STATES...EAST OF
90W...TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA INTO THE GULF WATERS
NEAR 26N/27N ALONG 86W. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THIS
TROUGH STILL IS IN THE INTERIOR U.S.A. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 35N60W TO 33N66W...AND
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N66W TO 33N77W APPEARS TO BE GETTING
SQUEEZED AND PUSHED TO THE NORTH BY THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 29N52W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS
LOW CENTER TO 25N56W AND 21N60W. ALL THIS IS FOUND IN AN AREA OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND
55W. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURE
EAST OF 40W. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOW CENTER IS NEAR 36N23W
SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THE TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER RUNS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TO 23N20W...WEST OF SOUTHERN MOROCCO...AND
SHOOTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THE 36N23W LOW CENTER AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORT
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W 26N24W TO 23N30W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N30W TO 20N38W. THE CLOUD BAND FOR
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE FALLEN APART ALREADY ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRATIFORM CLOUDS STILL ARE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE RUNS FROM 23N35W TO
31N38W...AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS FOUND FROM THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN
10W AND 40W.

$$
MT





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