[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N35W EQ50W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 32W-38W...AND NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 39W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF NEAR 26N84W. WARM 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
MOST OF GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 86W. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NE MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED. EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS
MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
17N MOVING EWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA AND JAMAICA. WEAKENING TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR 22N54W SW TO LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W.  A 1014
MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N54W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH. DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 41W-48W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N24W
24N30W. A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA.


$$
GR






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