[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030613 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 3N35W 2N50W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR
26N84W. WARM 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
86W. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS OVER NE MEXICO. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TODAY/EARLY TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN
PUERTO RICO...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE BRINGING THE
USUAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THEM IS OVER
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE
BASIN SOUTH OF 20N MOVING EWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA. WEAKENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR 22N54W SW TO LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N52W.  A 1014
MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N54W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 18N62W.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
ALONG 31N28W 25N35W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW
COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA.

$$
GR


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