[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W 1S50W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE AREA BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N70W THRU THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-66W.. MOSTLY S
OF BERMUDA.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ALONG THE FRONT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FEATURE.  RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS
INCREASING OVER S TEXAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER FLORIDA
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.  UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW
ATLC BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PENETRATE THE NW GULF LATE FRI AND STALL OVER FLORIDA ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE NE U.S. DIGS DEEP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THRU W CUBA INTO
NICARAGUA DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S
AMERICA AND SPREADING NEWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. W OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS.  TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IN
ADDITION TO PUERTO RICO BUT HAVEN'T BEEN AS NUMEROUS AS
YESTERDAY.  SOME INCREASE IN TRADES LOOKS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC.
UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO LIKELY BUILD WITH THE DIFFLUENT W END OF
THE HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.. PROBABLY INCREASING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A 1023
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N50W GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. THE LOW THAT WAS MEANDERING IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED WITH A LEFTOVER TROUGH FROM 19N45W TO 28N47W.  UPPER
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NRN S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W NNE TO BEYOND
31N48W COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N27W TO
25N34W ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 23W-29W.  IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC... W TO WNW FLOW CONTROLS THE REGION WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.  TRADES HAVE REBUILT
TO NEAR AVERAGE E OF 40W AND A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE W OF 40W.  A
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY ENTER THE NE ATLC LATE TOMORROW AND A
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

$$
BLAKE

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