[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N8W 4N10W 1N20W 2N30W 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 47W...
1S52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND 53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS
AGO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...AND NOW
ARE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
1S TO 2N BETWEEN 6W AND 11W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS
AGO SLID OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BEING REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHOSE AXIS RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA TO WEST CENTRAL
MEXICO. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE RIDGE EVEN REACHES NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE U.S.A. AND MEXICO
24 HOURS AGO MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM YESTERDAY ALONG 89W/90W
NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE EASILY RECOGNIZABLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD...AND NOT SO MUCH OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. THIS IS SEEN ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 02/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. THE MIDDLE
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS WESTERLY. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF THE LINE 26N97W 28N91W 31N85W.
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA TROUGH IS NORTH OF THIS 26N97W
31N85W LINE. A SURFACE RIDGE STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH 30N67W TO 27N77W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N83W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...AND CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THE MOMENT...TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN PULL EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF
79W...MOVING TOWARD PURELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THIS AREA. WIND SPEEDS FROM THE 02/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA RANGE FROM 50 KT TO 85 KT
SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND/OR
A JET STREAM HAS PERSISTED IN THIS AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. PATCHY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N MOVING EASTWARD...ON TOP OF THE DRY AIR.
RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
WESTERN PART OF SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS THE REASON FOR THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA
OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT
STARTS OUT NEAR 23N38W AND GOES TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 23N43W...CONTINUING TO 22N50W AND A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 21N55W...THEN TO 20N62W...CURVING THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W...AND FINALLY TO 16N70W. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND 73W...AND THEN FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 60W. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY TO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING DEVELOPS. FAIR WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAIN
OVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N64W TO 26N66W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH NOW IS
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE U.S.A. ALONG 33N/34N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. A SURFACE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N55W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS COVERED BY MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AWAY FROM AND WEST OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND THE TROUGH
WHICH EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 02/1500 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
RANGING FROM 70 KT TO 125 KT FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 60W TO
AFRICA. CLOUDS AND RAIN STILL ARE FOUND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH RUNS FROM 23N38W AND TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
23N43W...CONTINUING TO 22N50W AND A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 21N55W...THEN TO 20N62W...CURVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
NEAR 18N68W...AND FINALLY TO 16N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 47W AND 59W. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUALLY HAS BEEN
FORECASTING THE LOW CENTERS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
DISSIPATE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT THEY HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED
COMPLETELY YET. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 30N33W TO
26N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
THE JET STREAM WINDS RANGING FROM 70 KT TO 125 KT...WHICH IS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 60W.

$$
MT

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