[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 3N35W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 4S-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W ...AND FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 2W-4W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 32W-37W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W. WARM
10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE NE
GULF.  FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  A BAND
OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BE
REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN 24 HOURS.  THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER IS THUS FORECAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPEARS OVER N
FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND JAMAICA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 63W-78W.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  WISPY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W MOVING E QUICKLY IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH...AND OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA
DUE TO DIURNAL AIRMASS SHOWERS...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N54W.  A 1014
MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N55W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 19N62W.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE LOW.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W
25N35W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N54W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN
45W-65W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC HAS MOSTLY WLY FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA


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