[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 14W-19W AND 27W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 35W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 8W S OF 5N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88/89W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR
IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S MEXICO KEEPING THE SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDINESS
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
300 NM E OF BERMUDA AND A 1022 MB 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA.
SE/SSE WINDS FROM 10-15 KT ARE COMMON IN THE REGION WITH SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE N AND W GULF COAST. GFS
FORECASTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THE
MOMENT...TO ENTER THE NRN GULF LATE MON/EARLY TUE AND THEN PULL
EWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN...N S
AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE AREA N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BECOMING MORE INTENSE
AND EXPANDING EWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOW COVERING THE AREA
W OF 65W KEEPING SKIES FAIR-MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1014 MB LOW IS
LINGERING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W WITH A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED SWARD FROM THE LOW TO 15N72W MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
INDICATES SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY S OF THE ISLAND WITH THE MOST
SOLID AREA OF RAIN TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND MOVING OUT OF RADAR
RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA ENHANCED
BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EARLY-MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N OF THE
AREA PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...W CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC W OF 50W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED 300 NM
E OF BERMUDA. FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO THREE WEAK
SFC LOWS ROUGHLY 600-800 NM APART WITH THE WESTERN-MOST LOW JUST
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W AND THE EASTERN-MOST LOW NEAR
23N42W. THESE THREE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SIT ALONG A NEARLY
HORIZONTAL ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO
TO 29N29W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWARD AND NOW DIGS TO NEAR
18N65W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE VALUES OVER
20...ACCORDING TO THE 09Z CIMSS ANALYSIS...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO
BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED TROUGH LIES ALONG 40N35W 27N40W. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W THEN
DISSIPATING TO 27N39W. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE POST-FRONTAL TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
26N32W TO BEYOND 32N23W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 19N-24N
ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH THE AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG 6N38W 20N30W 25N25W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING TSTMS E OF 20W ALONG THE ITCZ
AND NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 7N.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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