[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR-3N BETWEEN
13W-17W AND MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 6W S OF 5N TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W/90W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR IS
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. A
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
200 NM E OF BERMUDA AND A 1022 MB 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA.
SE WINDS FROM 10-15 KT ARE COMMON IN THE REGION WITH SOME RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE W GULF...W OF 94W. GFS FORECASTS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...TO ENTER THE
NRN GULF LATE MON/EARLY TUE AND THEN PULL EWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN...N S
AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE AREA N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EXPANDING EWARD ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN NOW COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W KEEPING SKIES
FAIR-MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1014 MB LOW IS LINGERING JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 19N66W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED SSWARD FROM THE LOW TO
15N70W MARKED BY A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES SHOWERS AND
TSTMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE MOST SOLID AREA OF
RAIN TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN
OVER HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THIS AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO
W OF 50W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED 200 NM E OF BERMUDA. FAIR
WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO THREE WEAK SFC LOWS ROUGHLY
550-600 NM APART WITH THE WESTERN-MOST LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 19N66W AND THE EASTERN-MOST LOW NEAR 22N47W. THESE THREE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SIT ALONG A NEARLY HORIZONTAL ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO NEAR 20N67W PRODUCING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE VALUES OF OVER 30...ACCORDING TO THE 03Z
CIMSS ANALYSIS...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 58W-66W.  A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
DIPS S OF 30N NEAR 38W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
ALONG 32N34W 28N42W THEN DISSIPATING TO 26N48W. A FEW SHOWERS
MIGHT BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS
FROM 28N34W TO BEYOND 32N23W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM
21N-26N ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTROLS THE TROPICAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ROUGHLY
ALONG 6N38W 20N32W 26N26W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER W
AFRICA IS ENHANCING TSTMS E OF 20W ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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