[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 16N82W...ABOUT 100 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W.
OTHER SMALLER SHOWERS AND STORMS STRETCH FROM THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 14N83W TO WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM. RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSELY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11N34W...NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND
38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
15N60W DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS LOW NOW IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE 32N55W 21N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW...ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PLAINLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 32N55W
21N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
13N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 10N22W 12N31W...10N38W 10N43W 12N46W...13N50W 10N56W
9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W...
AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PERSISTENT 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS REMAINS NEAR 29N88W...ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM 31N89W TO THE LOW TO 26N89W TO 23N90W.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS LOW CENTER IS THAT AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN ONE CELL FROM 27N TO 28N
ALONG 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALSO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...IS
BLOWING OVER THE GULF WATERS AWAY FROM THE FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH. SOME OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CUBA-TO NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
GULF. THIS ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
IS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THE ONE WITH
THE EASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA LOW CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PATTERN HERE IS TROUGH...RIDGE...TROUGH. THE WESTERN TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER NEAR 30N75W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W. A BIG RIDGE COVERS
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST OF 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM AN ATLANTIC 21N58W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
EAST OF 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD TO 30N75W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS LOW TO WESTERN CUBA. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE BIG CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE POKES ITS WAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 25N71W AND 34N70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS THROUGH A 32N55W LOW CENTER TO A SECOND LOW CENTER
NEAR 21N58W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO
24N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N27W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A BIG RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND THIS 25N27W LOW CENTER.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N81W AT THE FLORIDA
COAST TO 30N63W TO 32N45W TO THE AZORES.

$$
MT


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