[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW IS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
14N84W DRIFTING NNW. FURTHER N...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W
MOVING NW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 14N86W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N29W 10N51W 9N62W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN
10W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N81W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. A
SMALL PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NW AGAINST THE
LOWER SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF S OF 27N WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE N.
GALE CONDITIONS HAS DISSIPATED BUT MODERATE/STRONG NE WINDS
REMAIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW OVER TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO
RIDING NE INTO THE NW ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
SE U.S. STATES AND THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED
IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF UPPER S TO SE FLOW. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...W CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY BY SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES
COMPLETELY INTO THE W ATLC MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUN AS THE LOW
IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YET
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR THE 1005 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE AREA OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS
FIRMLY ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W COVERING
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC AS WELL. THIS IS GIVING THE E
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 78W.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
FIRING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 80W. W
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER STORMY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST
OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECT TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA AND A SECOND FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL ENJOY
CLEARING SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WILL
WEAKEN NOT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...AS SUCH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE E U.S. COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN ARE ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 76W. AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND
BERMUDA COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 63W. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS
UNDER DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 60W-74W. AN UPPER LOW
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 25N54W EXTENDING A TROUGH S
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS
AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 53W-60W GIVING
MOST OF THE W ATLC RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BELOW THIS UPPER LOW ALONG 18N56W NE TO 29N50W WITH GALE
CONDITIONS NEAR THE N PORTION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E
ATLC S OF 27N FROM 23W-46W GIVING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND PROVIDING
ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N FROM 30W-50W...FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN
38W-48W...THEN CIRCLING THE UPPER LOW FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
48W-53W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE NE ATLC IS MOVING
INLAND OVER AFRICA N OF 25N E OF 23W.

$$
WALLACE


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