[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 27 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BEING IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ENHANCED BY
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 7N63W 14N60W 19N56W
MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS A STRONG SW/NE TILT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SAHARAN DRY SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING
UP AGAINST THE WAVE S OF 20N WHICH IS CAUSING ITS SOUTHERN END
TO RACE AHEAD OF ITS NORTHERN PART. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
9N-20N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
THERE IS A N/S ORIENTED CLOUD LINE MOVING W AWAY FROM THE
COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THE WAVE...BUT
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N21W 9N24W 6N35W 8N41W 9N45W
8N53W 11N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE ATLC FROM 2N-9N E OF 50W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E GULF FROM NE
FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
IS DRAPED ACROSS THE GULF FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR NEAR TAMPA BAY
TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N89W THEN NE TO E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF IS DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SO CONVECTION HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH THE SURFACE LOWS BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N67W. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA
FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS E CUBA...AND THE MOIST FLOW
TO THE S OF THIS AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
GENERALLY FROM NICARAGUA NWD TO BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE...WILL SPREADING WEST
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. THE
EASTERLY TRADES ARE FINALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
THE NEAR STATIONARY LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY E
TO ALONG 32N61W TO 27N68W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO THE 1010 MB LOW
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N62W 22N66W 21N70W. THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 60W ACROSS FLORIDA. RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N53W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING OVERALL
CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN 54W AND A LINE FROM 21N69W TO BEYOND 32N57W.
SUBTROPICAL JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA CONTINUES NE AND
STRENGTHENS OVER THIS SAME AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE E
ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 19N35W TO 10N43W WITH
ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N15W ALONG
28N27W TO 26N36W DISSIPATING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N45W. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N
FROM 20W TO THE W ATLC WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING
THE RIDGE. THUS...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. THE PLUME OF DUST THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE ATLC NOW REACHES AS FAR W AS 60W...BUT IS DISSIPATING
OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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