[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 27 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BEING IS OBSERVED ON THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ IS
ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 8N65W 15N61W 19N58W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A STRONG SW/NE TILT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SAHARAN DRY SURGE HAS PASSED OVER
BARBADOS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
9N-20N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
THERE IS A N/S ORIENTED CLOUD LINE MOVING W ACROSS PANAMA ...
WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THE WAVE...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.ARE MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 11N23W 9N27W 9N37W 8N52W
11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE ATLC FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 5W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W OVER THE E GULF SW TO
THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE GULF FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA
MEANDERING TO NEAR 26N92W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF
DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...SO CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER N MEXICO
AND S TEXAS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING WITHIN 90 NM LONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N66W. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA
FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS E CUBA...AND THE MOIST FLOW
TO THE S OF THIS AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
GENERALLY WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...DUE
TO TROPICAL WAVE...WILL SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
THIS TODAY. THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE FINALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
THE NEAR STATIONARY LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY E
TO ALONG 32N60W TO 29N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE 1013 MB LOW NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 28N. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N59W 24N64W 20N70W.
THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 58W
ACROSS FLORIDA. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE
NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N48W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
ARE GENERATING OVERALL CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 51W AND A LINE FROM
21N63W TO BEYOND 32N57W. SUBTROPICAL JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE SAME AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N32W TO 10N38W WITH ATTENDANT
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N13W ALONG 28N18W TO
27N30W. THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF
15N FROM 30W TO THE W ATLC. HERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE PLUME OF DUST THAT HAS BEEN
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE ATLC NOW REACHES AS FAR W AS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...BUT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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