[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 26 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE RE-LOCATED SLIGHTLY E OF ITS
PREVIOUS POSITION ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. BOTH
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW A PATCH OF CURVED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED ALONG
23W/24W...WHICH WAS THE REASONING FOR THE EARLIER POSITION.
BUT...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CLOSER TO THE ITCZ ALONG 21W...WHICH LEADS TO THE BELIEF THAT
THE WAVE IS TILTED FORWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS
REFLECTS THE SFC POSITION ALONG 21W. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL IN SW IR IMAGERY...WITH AN
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BEING ENSHROUDED BY A SIGNIFICANT DUST
PLUME TO ITS NORTH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 37W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 6N61W 13N59W
18N56W MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS A STRONG SW/NE TILT AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA OCCUPIED BY BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS. A SAHARAN DRY SURGE IS ALSO RUNNING UP AGAINST THE WAVE
S OF 20N WHICH IS CAUSING ITS SOUTHERN END TO RACE AHEAD OF ITS
NORTHERN PART. THE WAVE IS CAUSING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 57W-63W WHICH ARE MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
THERE IS A N/S ORIENTED CLOUD LINE MOVING W AWAY FROM THE
COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THE WAVE...BUT
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N10W 10N20W...THEN ALONG 6N22W
9N39W 7N50W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG OVER THE SE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 1W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE 4N13W 5N26W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TRPCL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PENETRATED ONTO THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU FROM THE NORTH...RESTING ALONG A LINE FROM SW NEW MEXICO
THRU CHIHUAHUA AND MONCLOVA...THEN BACK TO THE NE INTO FAR S
TEXAS. THE FRONT PUSHED S AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE WITH N/NE WINDS OBSERVED AT MOST STATIONS N OF
THE BOUNDARY. MONCLOVA EVEN REPORTED SUSTAINED 30 KT NE WINDS AT
2100 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT ALONG A SE/NW LINE...AS WELL AS FARTHER W ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS N OF 24N.

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL POSITIONED FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO BAY
OF CAMPECHE...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E FROM YESTERDAY'S POSITION.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR
TAMPA BAY TO 27N90W THEN NE INTO E TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG OVER THE
GULF DUE TO THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF...SO
CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
WATER. HOWEVER...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE TEXAS
ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE...AND THIS
FEATURE IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE BETWEEN GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA
BAY.

FLORIDA...
STATIONARY FRONT FROM GULF EXTENDS ACROSS S/CNTRL FLORIDA FROM
SARASOTA TO STUART...THEN SE TO NEAR NASSAU BAHAMAS. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY S OF THE FRONT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...MORE OR LESS MOVING E AS ONE MULTI-CELLULAR COMPLEX.
THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN RE-FORMING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND THE SEA BREEZE INTERACT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT
OR MOVE OFFSHORE JUST AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED MODERATE FOCUSED
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 79W-81W.

CARIBBEAN...
EXCEPT FOR INLAND CONVECTION...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY
AT THE MOMENT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE FINALLY
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A TRPCL WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM
GUATEMALA/BELIZE NE PAST CNTRL CUBA...AND THE MOIST FLOW TO THE
S OF THE AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
GENERALLY FROM NICARAGUA NWD TO BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ALSO EXTENDS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS MOVED
VERY LITTLE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS CREEPED EWD TO
ALONG 32N62W 26N70W TO NEAR NASSAU BAHAMAS. A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT N OF
28N BUT OF MORE IMMEDIATE IMPORT IS A BATCH OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER SE FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
58W-68W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES UP TO 175 NM SE OF A SFC TROF ALONG
23N70W 28N60W AND WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP FARTHER E OVER THE E/CNTRL ATLC BUT SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES ARE KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE N OF 20N. A DISSIPATING TROF EXTENDS ALONG 21N52W
26N33W AND LIES TO THE S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SAGGED
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N18W 27N35W 32N45W. EXCEPT FOR A LOW DECK
OF BROKEN STRATUS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A PLUME OF DUST HAS BEEN
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE ATLC AND NOW REACHES AS FAR W AS 55W...AND
S OF A LINE ALONG 20N52W 24N40W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG


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