[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261824 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 25 MAY 2005

CORRECTION FOR DATE OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 6N TO 20N
BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THIS WAVE.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. IT WAS DETERMINED 24 HOURS AGO THAT IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WAVE WAS ON THE MAP BUT NOTHING WAS CLEAR. LOW CLOUD
MOVEMENTS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW SOMETHING
NOW. NO DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 KT...APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  LOW CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THIS WAVE IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO
13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 15N ALONG 75W/76W IS MOVING
WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 10N TO THE GULF OF URABA...SOME CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N14W 10N23W...10N26W 8N38W...8N40W 7N50W 8N58W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...NOT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...FROM
2N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W AND 50W...MOVING INLAND AND/OR
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 14W...MOSTLY IN AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N115W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
A LITTLE LESS THAN 300 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN POINT OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
MEXICO...MOVES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THEN
MOVES CYCLONICALLY THROUGH GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS. THE CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FOR 26/1500 UTC SHOW LARGE SCALE
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ACCOMPANYING THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH STARTS OUT IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSES OVER FLORIDA AND COVERS THE
GULF WATERS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE OTHER ONE IS MOVING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GULF TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE COLD FRONT...SUPPORTED BY THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC-TO-GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...PASSES
THROUGH 30N65W TO 27N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA...COLD FRONT AGAIN FROM 27N84W
TO 27N90W 29N92W BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT RUNS FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF 64W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WHICH SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FROM 30N23W TO 19N59W...AND THE APPROACHING 58W/59W TROPICAL
WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS COVERED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.
THE REST OF THE AREA OF NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 45W IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...
WHICH ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH SPANS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N23W TO 27N30W 24N40W TO 22N50W 19N59W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL SHEARING WINDS IN
SOME AREAS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...NEAR THE SPLIT IN WIND FLOW
REGIMES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 33N39W TO 25N41W TO 14N44W...
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CONTINENTAL AFRICA.

$$
MT


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