[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 22 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15
KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY NO LONGER SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
SIGNATURE...BUT THE FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 35W-40W SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE IS STILL ACTIVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED S OF 13N.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N30W 6N36W 2N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
20W-25W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W.  A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W OVER S FLORIDA TO E TEXAS ALONG
25N84W 30N93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY DRY.  A 1015 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N93W.  LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR
28N103W.  A NARROW TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGING WITH SW MOIST FLOW IS OVER THE E
GULF W OF 90W AND S OF 27N.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DOMINATE OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SW OF JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 66W-71W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
75W-78W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO HONDURAS.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W AND S OF 17N.  EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 62W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SWEPT IN ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 21N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED INTO
THE AREA ALONG 32N65W 27N70W 27N78W.  A 1005 MB LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 28N60W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 19N69W OVER
HISPANIOLA.  DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. FARTHER E...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 16N61W TO BEYOND 32N48W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  RIDGING IS NOTED
OVER W AFRICA N OF 10N AND E OF 20W. THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN
DUST APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS IT MOVES E...WITH THE LEADING
EDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 20N45W 6N33W.

$$
FORMOSA


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