[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 22 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
VISIBLE IMAGERY NO LONGER SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
SIGNATURE...BUT THE FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-37W SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE IS STILL ACTIVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE RE-LOCATED OVER SURINAME...BASED ON THE 00Z
CAYENNE SOUNDING...ALONG 57W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND IS
LOCATED ALOFT BETWEEN 650 AND 850 MB. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY SPINNING FROM SRN
GUYANA INTO FAR NRN BRAZIL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS QUITE LIMITED...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 120 NM N OF THE SURINAME COAST HEADING W
TOWARDS GEORGETOWN GUYANA.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS...BASICALLY STRADDLING PANAMA TO THE N AND S. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N26W 5N34W 1N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA
BETWEEN 7W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN W OF 40W INTO NRN BRAZIL. A LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINE IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR EL PASO TX AND A LARGE UPPER
TROF OVER THE W ATLC WATERS ARE BOTH FUNNELING DRY NLY UPPER
FLOW OFF THE N GULF COAST...WHICH THEN SPLITS WITH ONE
TRAJECTORY MOVING INTO ERN MEXICO AND THE OTHER FLOWING SE
ACROSS FLORIDA. THE W ATLC TROF HAS PUSHED A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT SWD ACROSS FL...WHICH IS NOW STRUNG FROM A 1009 MB NEAR
FREEPORT BAHAMAS W TO 26N85W...THEN NW TO BEAUMONT TX AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY E OF 89W BUT GENERALLY THE
AREA IS UNDER FAIR SKIES. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW NEAR ACAPULCO
MEXICO IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BUT IS REALLY PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N GULF COAST TUE MORNING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOVING NE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE AXIS TOWARDS
JAMAICA...WITHIN 75 NM BETWEEN 75W-82W. ANOTHER SEPARATE CLUSTER
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOCATED N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 70-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS DRAWING WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS
NWD OVER THE AREA W OF 70W...BUT IS ALSO KEEPING THE LESSER
ANTILLES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FROM JAMAICA
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES AT LEAST THRU MID-WEEK AS THE SFC TROF
REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT N LATER IN THE WEEK
AS DEEPER ELY TRADE FLOW DEVELOPS.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS SWEPT IN ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING W OF 64W. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALSO
MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N69W 27N80W BUT IS ONLY BRINGING IN
A SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS A 1005 MB
LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W WITH A TROF EXTENDING
NE TO 27N60W AND SW TO HAITI. DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF
IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW/TROF
FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 55W-66W. FARTHER E...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF IS LOCATED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 57W BUT THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A SHARP TROF OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 37W. A
MEANDERING 1009 MB LOW IS MEANDERING BEHIND THE TROF NEAR 33N42W
BUT THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED FARTHER E AND INITIATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 32W-37W.
RIDGING IS STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OVER W AFRICA BUILDING N
TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST
APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS IT MOVES E...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ALONG 20N45W 6N33W.

$$
BERG


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