[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 22 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM MAURITANIA NEAR 24N10W
TO SENEGAL NEAR 15N15W. IT APPEARS THAT A CUTOFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM BETWEEN THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXISTED EARLIER FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N
TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGE RUNS FROM 36N54W THROUGH 31N54W 27N56W
23N60W DOES NOT AFFECT THE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW RIGHT ON TOP OF THE WAVE. HIGH CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN EASTERN
PANAMA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS SOUTH OF 10N
NORTH OF PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N14W 8N25W 8N31W...8N34W 6N44W 7N51W...7N54W 8N62W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
29W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N27W 7N16W 7N12W
6N11W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N95W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO 28N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N84W TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST INTO EAST TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 90W IN THE GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
THE GULF WATERS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N99W IS
SENDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS GUATEMALA TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N67W
TO 22N70W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA
TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 14N83W 16N80W 17N78W 19N72W TO 21N70W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS COMING OFF SOUTH AMERICA PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N54W THROUGH 32N55W 27N60W
21N58W...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N40W TO 24N38W 20N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THIS
AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC 1008 MB SURFACE GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N42W TO 25N46W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
20N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO
21N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W.

$$
MT



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