[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 22 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM MAURITANIA NEAR 24N10W TO SENEGAL
NEAR 15N15W. IT APPEARS THAT A CUTOFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM BETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W.
STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3.5N TO 5N BETWEEN
30W AND 33W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. A BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N54W THROUGH
32N55W 27N60W 21N58W DOES NOT AFFECT THE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE
MUCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE WAVE. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF 9N78W...AND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 8N24W 8N31W...8N34W 6N41W 6N50W...7N53W 8N60W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 5N26W 4N30W 4N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W
6N20W 5N24W...5N42W 4N44W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
3N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1012 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N95W. A COLD FRONT
HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...PASSING FROM A 1006 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST BEYOND EAST TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING IN NORTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT. CELLS OF SHOWERS
FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
16N98W IS SENDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS GUATEMALA TOWARD THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 90W
AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N67W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND
84W...STRONGER IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N69W 20N71W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W...AND BETWEEN 17N70W 16N77W
15N80W AND 20N73W 17N82W. EVERYTHING HERE IS RELATED TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CURVES
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LARGE SCALE RIDGE RUNS FROM 38N54W THROUGH 32N55W 27N60W
21N58W...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N40W TO 22N40W 17N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THIS
AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC 1011 MB SURFACE GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N43W TO 24N47W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
20N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
22N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net