[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 21 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVATURE IN THE LOW-CLOUD FIELD.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING S AMERICA IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15 KT.  THE WAVE SHOWS A FAIR SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURE WITH CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S AMERICA FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF
14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 68W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 8N30W 5N40W 6N53W
8N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO SE LOUISIANA ALONG 29N81W 29N90W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF 29N90W OVER LOUISIANA.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 91W-94W.  A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF
NEAR 25N95W.  VERY LIGHT WINDS COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 24N AND E OF 95W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SE OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N97W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SHUTTING DOWN THE
AFTERNOON TSTMS THAT TYPICALLY FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZES.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BUT
DISSIPATE DURING DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW BEFORE PASSING S
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
JAMAICA TO NEAR NE HONDURAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 84W-86W.  HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 13N SINCE THE PACIFIC ITCZ IS N OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 12N61W.  AN E/W AXIS EXTENDS W TO NICARAGUA.  CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N FROM S AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS SNEAKING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE REGION FROM
32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONT.  1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 68W-72W.  1010 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N57W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
47W-55W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E
OF 40W.  AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLANTIC E OF 45W
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-90W.  AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 5N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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