[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 23 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20
KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 12N MOVING W
10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 5N31W 6N40W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST WITHIN 90 NM
OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE N OF 7N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE W GULF IS SPLIT BY AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED BETWEEN A BROAD
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD HIGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E GULF. THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA S INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
IS FUNNELING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W AND E
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S
OF 25N E OF 92W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N93W. A
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W OVER S FLORIDA TO
NEAR 26N88W. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY
OVER S FLORIDA HAVE NEARLY DIE OUT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO 94W WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE NE GULF AND BE OVER S FLORIDA
BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 17N81W. THIS TROUGH
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER NE
NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE E CARIBBEAN
S OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN E/W AXIS EXTENDING FROM 45W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BUT ARE ONLY PRODUCING HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT N INTO THE W
ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N63W ALONG 26N70W TO OVER S FLORIDA WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER
THE E GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC
FROM A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N59W EXTENDING SSW TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 53W-80W. DRY AIR
AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60/90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N56W NNE TO BEYOND 32N48W. DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N FROM 44W-55W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 12N E OF 40W. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES
THROUGH 32N27W SW TO 18N42W. RIDGING IS ALSO NOTED WELL INLAND
OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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