[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 16 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED UNDER MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THE EXACT
LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE USING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W-70W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS IN AN AREA OCCUPIED BY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...BUT SOME OF THE ENERGY IS MOST LIKELY UNDERCUTTING
THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N W OF 78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 12N19W 6N25W 7N36W...THEN
ALONG 4N40W 6N51W 10N62W. SCATTERED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 30W. AN
AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 7N E OF 15W TO THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING
REMAIN INLAND OVER N MEXICO WITH MOISTURE-LADEN DEBRIS CLOUDS
EXTENDING E INTO THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N104W...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND
FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 98W-105W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S INTO THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS S TO 27N E OF
87W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DOUBLE BARRELED FRONTAL
SYSTEM HAS MERGED INTO A SINGLE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS S
ALABAMA ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA TO 29N94W.
THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL 1009 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 27N89W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W TO
26N95W...PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD SURFACE LOW...1007 MB...REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND S TO 11N79W. LOW IS BECOMING
DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N76W AND IS
PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-77W. HOWEVER...THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27W W OF 74W INTO THE W
GULF. AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA TO OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE FEATURES ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITHIN OUR AREA. REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF
28N WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W
27N53W TO 26N64W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH DRAPES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM 31N42W 25N54W TO 21N67W. VERY BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE
EXTENDS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM N OF 12N W OF 36W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

EAST ATLANTIC...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N E OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION JUST S OF THE AZORES AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER WESTERN SAHARA AND MOROCCO. A PLUME OF DUST IS
BEING ADVECTED OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL FROM
11N-20N TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NE ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO 31W.

$$
WALLACE


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