[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 15 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS VERY LOW IN AMPLITUDE WITH A SPECKLING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 36W-40W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE WAVE PASSED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING 1.73" OF RAIN AT TRINIDAD.
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
THE ITCZ BEING DRAGGED NWD ACROSS BARBADOS TO MARTINIQUE AND ST.
LUCIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
58W-66W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER NRN
VENEZUELA FROM 3N-12N E OF 71W...THEN ACROSS GUYANA AND SURINAME.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OCCUPIED BY BROAD LOW PRES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...BUT SOME OF THE ENERGY IS MOST LIKELY
UNDERCUTTING THE LOW AND MOVING ACROSS PANAMA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-84W MAINLY OVER
LAND AND S INTO THE PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N10W 15N17W 7N24W 7N35W...THEN
ALONG 4N38W 5N50W 13N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
UP TO 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-32W. OTHER CONVECTION
OVER S AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 65W AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD TSTMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN MEXICO AS A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS A COLD-CORE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N104W WHICH
HAS DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE AND FACILITATED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER MEXICAN PLATEAU AND MTN PEAKS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED N OF 24N BETWEEN
100W-108W RUNNING FROM A LINE THRU TORREON TO CHIHUAHUA TO EL
PASO. THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION RUNNING S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO MEXICO N OF 28N
BETWEEN 99W-103W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE
OF AN UPPER TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER S
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF IS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL TO 26N94W THEN NW TO
CORPUS CHRISTI TX...BUT A SECOND COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST MOVING
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA RUNNING NE INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM THE SW ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD LOW PRES...1007 MB...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N79W ALONG A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW THE LOW TO BE QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH TWO SEPARATE
CIRCULATIONS NEAR 13N79W AND 16N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N79W AND IS ACTUALLY PUTTING DETRIMENTAL
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE N HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING MOST OF
THE CONVECTION TO THE E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 69W-76W...REMAINING GENERALLY OVER
OPEN WATER. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS PLENTY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 79W...INCLUDING OVER
HISPANIOLA. THE BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A DUO OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL
AMERICA BY MID-WEEK AS THEY TRACK GENERALLY TO THE E.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
REMNANT FRONTAL TROF REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 32N40W
26N50W 22N60W 19N69W RUNNING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXTENDS S OF THE
JET AXIS DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NEAR S AMERICA...AND THIS IS
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 45W-60W (EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD). ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
LOCATED E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AT THE TAIL END OF THE TROF
AXIS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN N OF THE TROF ALONG 32N46W
27N60W BUT IS REALLY LOSING ALL ITS UPPER SUPPORT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE W ATLC.

EAST ATLANTIC...
SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OF THE E ATLC ALONG 32N29W 15N50W AND
IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST WITH
QUIKSCAT SHOWING WINDS 25-30 KT ALONG COAST OF MOROCCO. THESE
WINDS ARE PICKING UP A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND ADVECTING IT
OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL FROM 12N-20N E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NOUAKCHOTT MAURITANIA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
BLOWING SAND WITH VISIBILITY HAVING BEEN BELOW 1 NM FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. DAKAR HAS DUST IN THE AIR WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 3 NM.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROF EXTENDS ALONG 31N21W 23N28W 8N34W WITH
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS RUNNING NE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG


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