[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151825
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 15 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED S OF 11N ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH THE WAVE
BEING VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS IT APPROACHES A 1007 MB LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 6N35W 2N43W 7N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
17W-26W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF FROM MOBILE
ALABAMA TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS ALONG 30N88W 27N93W
27N97W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W TO 27N90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH.  WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT.  VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS ALSO NOTED FROM ONE
SIDE OF THE FRONT TO THE OTHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-97W.  MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 26N WITH A 120 KT JETSTREAM FROM 20N-26N.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND
FROM N FLORIDA TO N MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...A 1007 MB LOW
HAS FORMED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 14N79W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...AND EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W.  THIS SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
WEAK AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE.  CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE
AREA IS LIKELY.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW E/W RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 12N BETWEEN 70W-90W ENHANCING
CONVECTION.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED FLOODING OVER
PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA INTO THE NE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES OVER HIGH
TERRAIN.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 30N50W 27N60W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S FROM 27N50W TO NEAR HISPANIOLA AT
20N67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH LIES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 55W-75W.  SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHES
THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS TO 27N50W AND IS BOUNDED ON ITS S BY A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM 18N-27N.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EAST ATLANTIC...
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W.  HIGH PRESSURE
IS N OF 20N AND E OF 45W.  A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 14N17W.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS AROUND THE LOW
FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 10W-30W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL RIDGE IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A TROUGH IS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BETWEEN 10N-20N.

$$
FORMOSA


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