[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 16 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AT A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM
37W-42W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED DENSE CLOUD COVER MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE USING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-67W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES THE SW
CARIBBEAN...BUT SOME OF THE ENERGY IS MOST LIKELY UNDERCUTTING
THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 11N20W 5N26W 6N38W...THEN
ALONG 5N42W 4N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 25W-31W...ALONG THE SW COAST
OF AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N FROM 2W-10W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 6N
E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT HAVE
DISSIPATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER NE MEXICO/W TEXAS MOVING INTO THE W GULF FROM 22N-25N W OF
95W AND MOISTURE-LADEN DEBRIS CLOUDS EXTENDING OVER THE W GULF W
OF 93W. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N102W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INLAND OVER SE UNITED STATES BUT WILL
BEGIN REBUILDING BUILDING INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS THE SURFACE 1010 MB LOW HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND WILL
DISSIPATE. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD NOW N OF 27N E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W W TO 29N92W. THIS FRONT IS ONLY
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS GENERALLY CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD SURFACE LOW...1007 MB...REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS
E CUBA AND S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO DENSE
CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N68W AND IS PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND PUSHING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE E. AREA OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-77W. SW CARIBBEAN HAS PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE LOW
WITH THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27W W OF 66W INTO THE W
GULF. AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA NNW OUT OF THE
REGION. WITH DRY UPPER AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...THESE FEATURES
ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITHIN OUR AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH N OF 27N WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH DRAPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 32N42W
25N55W TO 20N67W. VERY BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE EXTENDS S OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N W
OF 50W AND WITHIN 450 NM SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 35W-50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF THE TROUGH.

EAST ATLANTIC...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 10N E OF SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WESTERN SAHARA AND
MOROCCO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NE ATLC N
OF 16N E OF 30W. FIRST IMAGES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PLUME OF DUST CONTINUING TO STREAM OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
AND SENEGAL WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 16N16W 13N30W TO 15N38W
INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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