[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 13 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS VERY WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A
SMALL NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
POSITION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL SOON BE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER SE
VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N26W 7N42W 5N44W. THIS IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACTIVITY ALONG MOST OF THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM S OF 8N W OF 7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER
SW AFRICA E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS APPROACHING THE W GULF WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO MOVE
NE SKIRTING THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BRINGING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
DISRUPTING THE RIDGE THAT WAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF. AN
UPPER HIGH IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N FROM 72W-90W. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR DOMINATES THE E GULF AND W ATLC N OF 23N FROM
74W-87W. MODERATE E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF.
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM AGRICULTURE FIRES CONTINUE OVER MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA BUT REMAINS LESS EVIDENT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW SURFACE STATIONS IN E MEXICO AND ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 5 NM OR GREATER. WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO IT APPEARS THAT THE HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE.

WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN....
EAST/WEST ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM
56W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 26N FROM 39W-56W. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70-90
KT IS LOCATED ALONG THE S EDGE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA TO 27N45W. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
TROUGH AND JET AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A COLD FRONT NEAR
32N46W SW TO 22N57W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO TO
OVER HISPANIOLA. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W TO
OVER E CUBA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 78W...BUT IS REMAINING OFF SHORE. THESE
ENHANCED RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
10N45W NE TO BEYOND 32N33W. MOISTURE PLUMB EXTENDS FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN NE COVERING THE EASTERN/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 17N FROM 26W-45W...ALTHOUGH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N16W SW TO 9N30W. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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