[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 13 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS VERY WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON A SMALL NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THERE IS NO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED SUE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
INLAND OVER S VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N22W 5N41W 4N52W. THIS IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACTIVITY ALONG MOST OF THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITHIN 200 NM S OF 8N W OF 5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INCLUDING THE NW GULF
WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE OUT OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NE SKIRTING THE NW GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
N GULF COAST. AN UPPER HIGH IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N FROM
70W-90W. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR DOMINATES THE FAR E GULF AND W ATLC
N OF 23N FROM 70W-86W. MODERATE E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES
THE GULF. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM AGRICULTURE FIRES HAS BEGUN TO
RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS EVIDENT THIS MORNING. IN ALL...ONLY
ISOLATED CLOUDS WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN....
EAST/WEST ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM
60W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
NOW ONLY EXTENDING S TO 28N FROM 37W-50W. JET STREAM WITH WINDS
OF 70-90 KT IS LOCATED ALONG THE S EDGE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA TO 26N50W. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE
OF THE TROUGH AND JET AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A COLD
FRONT NEAR 32N45W SW TO 21N57W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
PUERTO RICO TO OVER HISPANIOLA. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W TO E CUBA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
THESE ENHANCED RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
10N45W NE TO BEYOND 32N30W. MOISTURE PLUMB IS DIMINISHING AND
EXTENDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN NE COVERING THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 20W-45W...ALTHOUGH IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N16W SW TO 7N30W. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
45W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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