[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 12 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
VERY WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE POSITION IS BASED ON A
SMALL NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ AXIS.  THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N30W 7N40W 5N45W 5N54W. THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
1W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF
87W.  WINDS ARE ADVECTING CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS.  SMOKE
AND HAZE IS W OF 94W AND S OF 26N.  VISIBILITY OF 5-6 NM IS
REPORTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... W
OF 87W... REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
WELL NORTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN N OF 22N AND W OF 92W MOVING NE.  EXPECT
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA...THE WEST ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN....
A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N76W.  A
1003 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO CENTERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
74W-78W...AND N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  AN OLD
FRONTAL TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 22N57W 20N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE
HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EAST-WEST ELONGATING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NEAR 27N74W WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS...S FLORIDA AND INTO THE EXTREME SE GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA.  A BROAD JET AXIS WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
THROUGH 24N60W.  SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THE TROUGH AND JET AXIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE OLD FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT...RAIN AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME AREAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW INTO
THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. DRY AIR/
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N50W 22N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 60W. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE ATLC IN UPPER FLOW.
BROAD VERY WEAK RIDGING IS LOCATED BETWEEN 30W-45W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N16W TO
7N35W. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 9N53W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net