[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 11 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOCATION
IS BASED ON LOW LEVEL TURNING N OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LARGE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED FROM 6N-16N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 4N38W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
19W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 23W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE W GULF N OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA WITH
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA.
THIS COMBINED FLOW OF THE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR ARE SPILLING S ACROSS THE E GULF AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS IS LIMITING SHOWERS TO OVER GEORGIA AND
NE FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS PART OF A LARGER UPPER TROUGH
THAT COVERS THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. POSSIBLE SMOKE
EXTENDS FROM FIRES OVER S MEXICO ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9.5N79W TO 12N82.5W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER SE VENEZUELA ALONG 60W. THIS IS
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER VENEZUELA GENERATING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N COAST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
ATLC TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH ACCOMPANYING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
COULD OCCUR IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE RAIN EVENT EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST
TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS FROM 47W INTO THE E GULF.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W TO 25N55W WITH
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING SW TO JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 76W IS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE LOWS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND A MUCH MORE
LARGER UPPER LOW OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
DOMINATES THE ATLC FROM 30W-45W WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 32N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A WEAK
JET IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM
E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 22N. LONG-LIVED
DEEP-LAYERED LOW BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARYS IS SLOWLY MOVING
NE OUT OF THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH
32N18W SW TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE


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