[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED 11 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. LOCATION
IS BASED ON LOW LEVEL TURNING N OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LARGE
LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED FROM 6N-16N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 17N MOVING W
10 KT. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 6N19W 3N37W 4N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 23W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-23W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-17W...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
43W-49W....AND BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E
OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF N OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER WITH A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF GEORGIA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS COMBINED
UPPER FLOW IS PUSHING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
S ACROSS THE E GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC AND IS LIMITING SHOWERS TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A WEAK
1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W AND A 1018
MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N74W. THE MID/UPPER LOW IS PART OF
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W GULF INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. POSSIBLE SMOKE EXTENDS FROM FIRES OVER S MEXICO ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A 1005 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA ALONG 60W. THIS IS
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER VENEZUELA GENERATING SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WITH ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES COULD OCCUR IN HIGHER TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAIN EVENT
SINCE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS FROM 46W INTO THE E GULF.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 26N54W WITH
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING SW TO PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 74W IS WEDGED BETWEEN
THE LOWS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW
OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC
FROM 30W-45W WITH A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N37W.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A WEAK JET IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 22N. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS N OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE


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