[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 10 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. LOCATION IS
BASED ON LOW LEVEL TURNING NOTED N OF 10N.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LARGE LOW CLOUD SIGNATURE IS NOTED N OF 8N MOVING W.  CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 19N MOVING W 15
KT.  THE WAVE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 85W-92W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 6N28W 4N35W 6N46W
5N52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-21W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IS STILL OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W PRODUCING SE FLOW AT 10 KT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SMOKE IS OVER THE SW GULF W OF 93W AND S OF 26N MOVING NW.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR W GULF W
OF 94W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF
94W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N86W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE
MORE EASTERLY OVER THE GULF IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN OVER N COLOMBIA...AND N VENEZUELA
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 66W-74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER NE HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
68W-71W.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT...
OROGRAPHIC LIFT...DEEP LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN.  THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD
OCCUR IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE RAIN EVENT EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC...
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD... NOW ALONG
ABOUT 75W... WEDGED BETWEEN THE N CAROLINA UPPER LOW AND A MUCH
MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC.  THIS DEEP-LAYERED
LOW IS CENTERED JUST A BIT NE OF BERMUDA WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH
DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N62W.  ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM 32N51W 25N56W
22N60W THEN WEAKENING STATIONARY TO THE N COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
28N. A LARGER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS FIRING FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 46W-54W AS A RESULT OF UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA IN ADDITION TO A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE TROPICS
AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS.  FLAT UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 30W-60W SAVE FOR THE ITCZ. LONG-LIVED
DEEP-LAYERED LOW BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARYS IS KEEPING THE
PRESSURES LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THE E ATLC THOUGH THE LOW SHOULD
PULL OUT BY LATE WEEK.

$$
FORMOSA


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