[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 06 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
DISPLACING ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE E
OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 59W-65W.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N20W 3N35W 2N45W 1N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 4N13W-7N17W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 6N W OF
23W AND FROM 3N-8N E OF 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
A MORE WINTER TYPE WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE AREA WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH ATTENDANT LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 998 MB
STORM CENTER LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N74W ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 24N82W WERE A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH OF CONTINENTAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50'S ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE 60'S IN S
FLORIDA. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
HAVE SHIFTED E OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 68W-77W WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS S FLORIDA.
ADDITIONALLY...CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
ENTIRE E GULF...FLORIDA....AND THE W ATLC W OF 76W. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CENTER
OFF THE E UNITED STATES COAST IS PRODUCING LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS NE AND BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY S OF 25N DISSIPATING DURING THE NIGHT. POST-FRONT N
FLOW WILL REIGN OVER THE E GULF INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S ACROSS THE N GULF AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA NE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON SAT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST. EXPECT HIGHER THAN USUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES E COAST...BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W AND
70W...AND TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N34W
THROUGH 20N40W TO 15N42W. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER CONTINUES
TO BE THE STORM CENTER ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND ARE MOVING NE TO OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STORM CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRAILING FRONT SWEEPING E THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WATERS. FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM BERMUDA S JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BY SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY N
OF 25N. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC FROM 35-60W
PRODUCING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE E ATLC...THE
PERSISTENT LOW NEAR 33N29W CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY N OUT OF THE
AREA. TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 31N24W TO 22N29W
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE LOW TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AZORES BY SAT NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS N OF THE AREA. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT DUST REMAINS BUT
CONCENTRATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN S OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net