[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 06 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO THE E OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
57W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-66W.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING
BRIEF PERIOS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N1W 6N20W 1N35W 9N61W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER SW AFRICA
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 1W AND 15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN A PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF WINTER...SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER FLORIDA WITH ATTENDANT LATE SEASON
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUAL SWD
PUSH OF CONTINENTAL AIR WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50'S
ACROSS N FLORIDA AND 60'S IN S FLORIDA.  PRECIPITATION
WISE...THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
ENTIRE E GULF AND FLORIDA.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CENTER ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES
COAST IS PRODUCING LINGERING CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE.  HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TODAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS NWD AND BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.  COLD FRONT
WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BRINGING WITH A POST-FRONT NLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE E GULF INTO
SAT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE N GULF LATE SAT AND SUN
RESULTING IN VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.   OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GLFMEX DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE GENERALLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MEAN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM S AMERICA NEWD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
LIMITED SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEAKENING FEATURE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER
E CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. EXPECT HIGHER THAN USUAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES E COAST...BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO W ATLC BETWEEN 45W AND 70W...AND
TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC FROM 32N33W THROUGH 20N40W TO 15N50W.
THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING 1000 MB
SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NEAR
NORTH CAROLINA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT POLEWARD OF
THE BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 NM
AHEAD OF FRONT FROM THE BAHAMAS SWD. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXIST.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH TRAILING FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND W
ATLC WATERS.  FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA SWD TO THE S
BAHAMAS BY SAT AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT PRIMARILY N OF
26N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC PRODUCING DRY AND
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE E ATLC...THE PERSISTENT LOW NEAR
32N29W CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY NWD OUT OF THE AREA. TRAILING
COLD FRONT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH ALONG 31N23W TO 21N30W
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE LOW TO BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE AZORES BY SAT NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH WINDS AND SEAS N
OF THE AREA. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DUST CONCENTRATIONS HAVE DECREASED BUT PATCHY
AREAS LIKELY REMAIN S AND E OF A LINE ALONG 25N25W 12N40W
12N60W.

$$
RHOME





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